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common sense
Wikipedia on Black Swan Events:
The main idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict black swan events, but to build robustness against negative ones that occur and be able to exploit positive ones. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous black swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective models. On the subject of business in particular, Taleb is highly critical of the widespread use of the normal distribution model as the basis for calculating risk.
In the second edition of The Black Swan, Taleb provides "Ten Principles for a Black-Swan-Robust Society".
Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".
For most people on Earth TEOTWAWKI will be a black swan event. It doesn't have to be for you.
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6/16/2012, 4:27 pm
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TheLivingShadow
Location: Morocco
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electricity
When the power grid goes down, all grid-tie solar systems will go down with it
If the power grid goes offline, your entire grid-tie solar array becomes instantly useless and you can't power a laptop computer even if you have $100,000 worth of solar panels sitting on your roof. In a grid-tie system, they all are instantly shut off.
Many people who buy grid-tie systems mistakenly think they're buying off-grid systems. If you do the math on the cost of batteries for a typical off-grid system running a household of four people, you'll come to the surprising figure that batteries alone can cost you $500 / month, each and every month that you use an off-grid system.
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6/18/2012, 8:51 am
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